Using the scenarios

In the Northern Mozambique Channel, the scenarios will guide the implementation of multi-stakeholder platforms that will be important for Marine Spatial Planning in coming years.

More broadly in the WIO/ESA, such as in the Nairobi Convention and other regional institutions (e.g. Indian Ocean Commission, Southern Africa Development Community), as well as in bilateral discussions between countries, the scenarios can contribute to planning and dialogues on delivering on the WIOSAP goal of a prosperous and sustainable future for the region.

One value of scenarios is the involvement of individuals and institutions in their development and elaboration. This builds systemic understanding, relationships and trust amongst stakeholders, to support and guide decision-making. Particularly where there are competing sectors and interests, scenarios can be a valuable tool to provide decision-makers, business-leaders and civil society with a common language and understanding about the potential consequences of their choices and actions. This helps to build the relationships and trust needed to tackle complex issues and trade-offs, and commit to long term solutions.

Next steps will also include (semi)quantitatiave elaboration of the scenarios using relevant SDG and other indicators, exploring in greater depth the consequences of each scenario in varied sectors and contexts, and using the scenarios in planning interventions to identify ‘seeds’ of desirable future outcomes, to nurture them through the often-difficult early stages of development.