Background and justification

Scenarios describe what MAY happen, not what WILL happen.

This work builds on prior scenarios developed by the Nairobi Convention and partner projects (fig. below), focused on two ‘opposite’ futures – “Conventional Wold/Business as Usual” and “Sustainable World/Blue Economy”.

These new scenarios explore nuances in greater detail, expanding consideration to 4 plausible futures, generating richer narratives about potential futures and decision-making opportunities. They are focused on the shared history of East and Southern African countries in terms of indigenous and foreign contacts from several centuries ago until the present, and project forward from now until 2035.

For clarity they focus on dominant drivers within the Northern Mozambique Channel, but are relevant more broadly at national levels in the same countries, to other countries in the WIO/ESA region, as well as beyond the marine and coastal domain.