Launch of the WIO scenarios


On 9 July 2018 the scenarios for the future of the Western Indian Ocean/East and Southern Africa were launched at the Science-Policy forum of the Nairobi Convention in Durban, South Africa.

Dr. David Obura of CORDIO, on behalf of the scenarios team of almost 100 participants presented the scenarios and the first viewing of the videos, summary booklet and this website prepared to illustrate them.

Three workshops (in May and November 2017, and March 2018) were held, involving 8 countries of the region, regional partners and almost 100 participants. Participants came from government, major NGOs and civil society, and from multiple sectors including fisheries, environment, tourism, planning and maritime transport. Over the three workshops a process called the “Transformative Scenarios Process” was applied, generating rich narratives about potential futures and decision-making opportunities. The scenarios are focused on the shared history of East and Southern African countries, and project forward from now until 2035.

The scenarios were based on two key uncertainties – the quality of governance (from high to low) and level of investment (from high to low) – exploring how other drivers and uncertainties may play out based on these.

Using these scenarios in planning and policy processes may help to identify actions to deliver on the Sustainable Development Goals, and further work by the partners involved will pursue this.